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War Council

Pre-mortem risk heat and tripwires

War Council — Pre-Mortem

Think through failure before it happens. Each risk is plotted on Likelihood × Impact, paired with a mitigation and an observable tripwire — the sign that tells you the risk is starting to materialize.

Heat map

Rows are Likelihood (5 = highest, at top, down to 1). Columns are Impact (1 to 5, left to right). Cell color is the heat band of likelihood × impact; risk ids in a cell are the risks plotted there.
Impact →
Likelihood ↓12345
5
4
r-7
r-1
3
r-5
r-4
r-2
2
r-8
r-3
r-6
1
council-seal
council_hash: e5bad19839d5e21fc1d1ded91a64ec5a03620158f7a25f373b498821315849c1
SEALED — the risk picture is hash-locked at this decision point.

Risks, highest heat first

Primary command-post radio net degrades under jamming

C2/Comms
15Elevated
Likelihood
3 / 5
Impact
5 / 5
Mitigation
Rehearse the fallback to the secondary SATCOM net and pre-brief runner routes between command posts.
Tripwire — watch for
Net control reports two consecutive missed commo checks on the primary net.
Owner
S6, 1st Exercise Brigade

Fuel convoy delayed past the exercise resupply window

Logistics
12Moderate
Likelihood
4 / 5
Impact
3 / 5
Mitigation
Pre-position a 48-hour fuel reserve at the forward node and stage a backup convoy route through Notional Pass.
Tripwire — watch for
Convoy check-in at Phase Line Bravo is more than 90 minutes behind the movement table.
Owner
S4, Task Force Meridian

Simulated intrusion attempt against the exercise planning network

Cyber
12Moderate
Likelihood
3 / 5
Impact
4 / 5
Mitigation
Segment the planning network from the live network and require MFA for all planning-tool access.
Tripwire — watch for
Intrusion-detection tooling logs a failed authentication burst from a single account within one minute.
Owner
Cyber Lead, 9th Exercise Support Command

Perimeter security post left unmanned during a shift rotation

Force Protection
10Moderate
Likelihood
2 / 5
Impact
5 / 5
Mitigation
Stagger shift rotations so no post goes unmanned and require a radio check-in at each post handoff.
Tripwire — watch for
A post handoff check-in is missed for more than 15 minutes on the guard log.
Owner
Provost Marshal Cell

Severe weather front closes the notional airhead during the lift window

Weather/Terrain
9Moderate
Likelihood
3 / 5
Impact
3 / 5
Mitigation
Track the 72-hour forecast daily and hold an alternate ground-lift plan through the southern corridor.
Tripwire — watch for
Weather desk issues a ceiling-and-visibility advisory below lift minimums for the airhead.
Owner
S3, Combined Wargame Group Atlas

Notional adversary probes the exercise's public messaging for a wedge

Political
8Moderate
Likelihood
2 / 5
Impact
4 / 5
Mitigation
Hold a single approved public-affairs line and route all outside inquiries through the exercise press desk.
Tripwire — watch for
A press inquiry references exercise details that were not part of the approved release.
Owner
Public Affairs Officer

Notional coalition partner's supply request outpaces the shared depot

Logistics
8Moderate
Likelihood
4 / 5
Impact
2 / 5
Mitigation
Set a daily depot-draw ceiling per partner and pre-clear an overflow request path to the rear depot.
Tripwire — watch for
A partner's daily draw request exceeds the agreed ceiling two days in a row.
Owner
S4, 3rd Simulated Logistics Wing

Rehearsal-of-concept brief slips, compressing final coordination time

C2/Comms
4Low
Likelihood
2 / 5
Impact
2 / 5
Mitigation
Lock the ROC drill start time as a hard gate and pre-stage all briefing materials 24 hours prior.
Tripwire — watch for
Briefing materials are not staged and confirmed complete 24 hours before the ROC drill.
Owner
Chief of Staff, Task Force Rehearsal